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What is R0 (R-naught)?
R0, pronounced “R naught,” is a mathematical term that indicates how contagious an infectious virus is. It is also called the reproduction number.
R0 tells you the average number of people who will get the virus from one person with that virus.
So what does R0 tell us?
3 cases.
- When R0 is less than 1 - each infection causes less than 1 infection. The virus eventually dies off.
- When R0 is equal to 1 - the infection is stable. The existing infection will infect one person. The virus will not die off but will not cause a pandemic.
- When R0 is more than 1 - each infection causes more than 1 infection. The virus will transmit between people and there is a risk of an outbreak.
The R0 value applies when the entire population is completely vulnerable to the virus.
COVID-19 R0
From the initial data, COVID-19 was estimated to have an R0 of about 2, but after consolidating data from many other sources, COVID-19 now has a median R0 of 5.7.
This means that a person getting the virus can potentially infect about 6 other people.